Using the Pythagorean Expectation formula, BC's winning percentage should have been 60.8%, but in actuality it was 56.7%. This is a difference of about 2 games. What does this mean? The Eagles likely experienced some bad luck which resulted in them losing two games they otherwise might have won.
Adjusting the batting order can result is an increase or decrease in runs. Using Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool, I input BC's starting 9 used during the post-season to come up with the optimal lineup card. That lineup would produce an average of 6.873 Runs per game, here it is as follows: 1. Anston 2. Sanchez 3. Butera 4. Wiswall 5. Spatola 6. Belfiore 7. Lawrence 8. Sudol 9. Hamlet
BC's stolen base % was worst in the ACC this season at 57% success rate (41 SB-72 attempts). According to noted author Tom Tango, the run value of a stolen base is .19 while the run value for an unsuccessful stolen base is .46. That means that BC created 7.79 runs by stealing, but also lost 14.26 runs by getting caught stealing for a grand total of (-6.47 runs). BC would have been better off if they didn't attempt a single stolen base all season.
Tomorrow: Individual Player Statistics
2 comments:
This is great stuff! Sabermetrics is a passion for me and I never thought I would see it used at the BC level. Thank you very much. I just got around to reading this and I am going to read the other two shortly. One comment I have is that even though it probably isn't much different with a Stolen Base, NCAA Baseball is a completely different environment than MLB Baseball and therefore the run values will be different. I'm guessing there is a lot more scoring in college, and that changes pretty much everything when it comes to run values. It is the same thing with the exponent in Pyth% and the Lineup toy. I don't think it is devastatingly different, however you have to consider that this is not MLB.
I probably should have added that as a disclaimer. I couldn't find anything that would give me the run values for the NCAA level so I just stuck with MLB. Although the numbers are probably off because of this it can still be useful
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